What will happen to the dollar. The national Bank predicted the situation on the currency market
Until the end of December, a significant jump in the dollar in Ukraine is not expected.
“Just want to reassure the situation is under control of the NBU, it also keeps track of the NBU Council, which defines the Main principles of monetary policy. In addition, the course on which you calculated the budget in 2017, – 27,2 USD/dollar, is not the target for the NBU and the market, but purely a technical indicator. As for the current exchange rate of the hryvnia and the situation on the currency market, but now the hryvnia exchange rate returns to fluctuations on the level close to the one that was at the end of last and the beginning of the current year”, – said the head of the national Bank Council Bohdan Danylyshyn.
The appreciation of the dollar, he explains that there was a seasonal decline in export earnings for certain groups of goods and the increase in demand for foreign currency, including for the procurement of energy, since such operations are carried out in foreign currency.
“Significant pressure on the dynamics of the exchange rate of the hryvnia has led to the recent payment of VAT refunds to exporters, which is implemented in two ways. On the one hand, exporters hryvnia liquidity reduces the need to sell foreign currency. With other exporters can provide this liquidity to buy foreign currency. It should also be noted that the growth of export earnings of farmers in recent years, continued to encourage imports of machinery for agricultural purposes. In addition, farmers procure fertilizers for the needs of the sowing campaign of winter crops, resulting in increasing imports of chemical products,” explained he.
REGARDING the SITUATION ON the CURRENCY MARKET in Recent days, the media and ordinary citizens are asking questions about the situation…
Published by Bohdan Danylyshyn 3 Dec 2017
The national Bank expect moderate exchange rate volatility until the end of 2017.
“The reason for this is the dynamics of currency proceeds from exports of new harvest and certain fundamental factors, primarily external pricing environment, which continues to be favorable for the products of domestic exports. This applies to relatively high world prices for Ukrainian steel, iron ore and wheat. In addition, it should be noted that in October recorded a decrease of the current account deficit of the balance of payments. At the same time in the cash foreign exchange market is the recovery of the excess supply of foreign currency from the population on demand,” – said the Chairman of the NBU Council.
Now the regulator is working with the Ministry of Finance to the government at the end of the year carried out a major budget payments at one time and spread them evenly. This applies, for example, VAT reimbursement or payment of pensions for January in December.
“The national Bank continues to maintain a presence in the foreign exchange market in case of excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate from the influence of situational factors. Since the beginning of September net sales of foreign currency by the National Bank is 174 million dollars. International reserves at the end of November amounted to 19 billion U.S. dollars. These funds are sufficient for intervention to smooth excessive fluctuations in the currency market if necessary”, – assured he.
We will remind, on December 4 the official exchange rate of the NBU is UAH 27,05 Euro of 32.15 UAH.
In the draft budget for the 2018 laid a course to 29.3 UAH per dollar.
Before the government announced such currency forecasts: the exchange rate of the hryvnia (average per year) in 2018 will amount to 29.3 UAH per dollar, in 2019 – 30.5 UAH per dollar in 2020 – 31 UAH per dollar.
Ukrainian business expects that in the next year, the exchange rate will be at 27 to 30 UAH per dollar. This is evidenced by the survey among entrepreneurs, held by the NBU.
Throughout its history, the hryvnia has set the record almost three years ago – February 26, 2015 in NBU official exchange United States dollar amounted to 30.01 UAH, and the Euro – 34,04 UAH.
The US dollar exchange rate of the NBU
The Euro exchange rate of the NBU
- National Bank
- the hryvnia
- exchange rates
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