The NBU explained why inflation has exceeded his predictions. Infographics
By the end of 2017, the inflation in Ukraine amounted to 13.7% and in 2016 is 12.4%.
These data were provided by the State statistics service.
The national Bank predicted that the figure will be 8% plus/minus 2%
“Inflation for the year have deviated from the target mainly due to factors for which the national Bank could not influence through monetary policy instruments. It is primarily about reducing the supply of certain goods due to adverse weather conditions in the first half of the year, the unstable situation in livestock production, increase in world prices and external demand for domestic food products (particularly meat and dairy groups). Also on the rise in prices affected by the increase in production costs, in particular labor costs, and the rapid recovery of consumer demand”, – explained in NBU.
The regulator is justified that the forecasts while inflation targeting is not true in other countries.
“Cases of deviation from the target for reasons beyond Central banks causes often happen with targetenemy inflation. For example, since 2000 inflation in Israel, 74% of the time deviated from the target, in Poland (since 2001) – 73% of the time in Czech Republic is 65%. In such cases, the Central Bank needs to take measures to bring inflation to target over a particular time period is an adequate response and communication help to avoid the deterioration of expectations and to remove uncertainty about future inflation”, – noted in the NBU.
The regulator also began to take action six months ago has stopped easing monetary policy, and in October moved on to more drastic measures.
“As a result of this tight monetary policy inflation will decline in the future. The national Bank will continue to direct its policy to slow the pace of price growth and achieving inflation”, – explained in the national Bank.
The new macroeconomic forecast, the NBU has promised to release January 25, and detailed inflation report – 1 Feb.
The national Bank of Ukraine
The national Bank of Ukraine
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