The Economist has published the forecast of development of world economy in 2017
The Economist has published the forecast of development of world economy in 2017
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Low demand and weak productivity growth are a serious problem in the next year.
Slow growth has become the new norm in the global economy. It is expected that global output at market exchange rate will increase by less than 3% in 2017.
Powerful recovery that was to come after the global crisis of 2008, will not start and the following, reports The Economist. Intergovern politics of Donald trump, if implemented, will damage the world economy, but not so much of 2017, except that if he starts a tariff war with China, which is unlikely. In turn, low demand and weak productivity growth will be a more serious problem next year.
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It is noted that a strong global economy generally is growing annually by 4%. A rise of 3% close to normal. The Economist Intelligence Unit, in particular, provides that the global GDP will increase by only 2.5% in 2017 this figure will continue to improve for another several years.
Growth in the Eurozone did not exceed 2% for six consecutive years. Economic growth in the US in 2017 will not accelerate due to unpredictable policy trump. Japan’s economy tries to expand, even at 1% per year. Among the major world economies, only India looks more promising. The economy of this country will move forward by 7.5%.
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Because of the slow growth of the economy in will focus on global banks. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and post-Brexit, the Bank of England will look for various ways to speed up the development of its economy. The years of near-zero interest rates, and now negative interest rates the ECB and the Bank of Japan, led to a decrease in income, but Central banks will not dare to change course.
It is noted that economic growth was slow due to a flabby performance. Production development on one worker in America increased by 1.9 percent per year from 1990 to 2005, but less than half in the last decade. At the beginning of the Euro area was less productive than America, but the speed is there, too, fell by half. The pace of productivity growth also declined in China. For 2017, the Outlook is not the best. In the West, weak investment and excessive regulation, seems to have done the trick.
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In turn, 2017 promises to be an absolutely dismal in economic terms. Uncertainty about some political views trump may be offset by lower taxes. Moving China to a consumer economy will accelerate, despite the dizzying levels of debt: credit is growing three times faster than nominal GDP. Although Brexit puts Europe in a series of crises, but economic losses will be small for most countries.
After two years of recession, the Russian economy will be growing in 2017. Brazil will also end the recession. For a large number of countries that rely on mining and agriculture commodity prices will rise during 2017.