The national Bank is preparing a script for a “rainy day” because of the freezing of coal supplies from Donbass – Gontareva
Instead of the promised easing of currency restrictions in Ukraine, the national Bank may again impose strict rules. The reason – reduction of foreign exchange earnings from industry. It reduced production for lack of coal, which supplies from the occupied Donbass for a month block activists.
In an interview with Reuters, said national Bank Chairman Valery Gontareva.
“Negative consequences for our balance of payments can be at the level of $ 2 billion. On the one hand, I can see a reduction of foreign currency revenues from metallurgists, on the other hand, the demand for the currency needed to buy coal,” – said Gontareva.
By the end of 2016, the share of industry exports accounted for $ 8 billion – a quarter of total exports of Ukraine.
“If stops in metallurgy, so we do anti-crisis measures”, said Gontareva.
The head of the NBU also said that the situation in the Donbass and the consequences due to the possible exacerbation of the war discussed with the International monetary Fund.
“In our baseline scenario of macroeconomic forecast these events were not included. But we have a script and a “black day”. We understand, how we react in terms of the balance of payments and banking regulation,” – said Gontareva, but did not disclose details.
Recall that strict measures in the foreign exchange market the national Bank introduced in the fall of 2014 and early 2015. Then due to the deterioration of the war in the Donbass in the foreign exchange market began to panic and the dollar from UAH 8 in 2013 rose to 36 UAH.
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In March 2015, the IMF has gone towards Ukraine and approved 4-year program of the extended credit totaling $ 17.5 billion. This cash, as well as the relative stabilization in the Donbass , Ukraine’s economy by the end of 2016 increased by 2%. The NBU gradually began to lift the restrictions.
Gontareva said that the “base scenario”, which assumes the absence of exacerbations in the ATO zone, maintaining macroeconomic stability and continued cooperation with the IMF, provides for further restrictions. In particular, the regulator wants to increase the limit of open currency position of banks up to 5% of their capital from the current 0.5%, which is ten times increases the amount of currency banks can buy and sell for their own funds. Accordingly, it will reduce the need for interventions of the NBU, who often buys or sells foreign currency to smooth short term imbalances between demand and supply.
“Everything connected with the export-import operations, investment – we have a priority to make sure that there are no restrictions. The first priority, which now want to resolve is the payment of dividends for the year 2016”, – said Gontareva.
The baseline scenario assumes the receipt of four tranches of the IMF in the amount of $ 5.4 billion, of which $ 1 billion – in the coming weeks.
“For this tranche we have fulfilled all the previous conditions and structural beacons”, – said Gontareva.
Now coordinate the timing of implementation of reforms required for the next tranche.
Despite the fact that the negotiations on the conclusion of the third revision of the program and receipt of the fourth tranche was delayed from last year, the head of the NBU is confident that Kyiv has every chance to get the full amount for the year.
“Tranches you can combine, so I don’t have all the time to do the reviews, it is possible to take higher commitments to make the reforms faster”, – said Gontareva.
Earlier, Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman told, how the authorities will solve the issue with the blocking of the coal from the Donbass, and whether the rolling blackouts , the emergency regime in the energy sector, which was introduced on February 17 by at least one month.