Forecast of the Cabinet on the exchange rate pessimistic, we expect 28.5 hryvnia per dollar – Korobkova
The gradual devaluation of the hryvnia in 2018 it is expected, however, inherent in the draft budget Cabinet to 29.3 average annual rate of UAH/USD looks quite pessimistic.
About it in the comments TSN.ia said the Executive Director of the Independent Association of banks of Ukraine (NABU) Elena Korobkova.
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In its forecasts, the average rate next year will amount to 28.5 UAH/USD.
“When planning the budget, the Finance Ministry used two digits: at the end of the year to 30.1 UAH/USD and UAH 29,3/USD – average rate, which, by the way, was published back in June, when the government adopted the budget resolution for three years. However, this does not mean that the established rate will be true at the end of next year. If you recall the average rate, which was put into the budget by 2017 a year ago, it was the figure of 27.2 UAH/USD. In fact we see the opposite situation: since the beginning of this year, the average rate is 26.5 UAH/USD”, – said Korobkov.
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At the same time, according to him, the depreciation of the hryvnia will continue due to the growing demand of Ukrainians for imported goods.
“In Ukraine, historically, after the crisis, when the economy begins to recover and the well-being of the population grows and the demand for imported goods. Therefore, many analysts and the national Bank predict the expansion of the trade deficit. This in turn will put pressure on the foreign exchange market, because of rapid acceleration of inflow of foreign direct investment have not been forthcoming,” said Executive Director of the NABU.
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The devaluation of the national currency Ukrainians will feel in their wallets, says Korobkov, however, as much as in previous years.
“The Bank now has all the tools and sufficient stock of reserves to prevent a sharp jump of the course. Therefore, we believe that the devaluation will proceed quite smoothly. But economic growth will boost incomes, which partially neutralizes the negative effect from the devaluation of the hryvnia,” – said Korobkov.
In addition, the positive forecasts, due in part to the fact that the government has realized the inadequacy of one-year-old model, budget planning and adopted this year’s budget resolution for three years.
“To the Parliament for a start directed an annual budget for 2018, but the government is working on a new Budget code, which medium term budgeting will be the standard. This model has its advantages, as evidenced by the successful experience of developed countries such as USA, Australia and others,” said Korobkov.
Recall that in the Ministry of Finance disown the projected hryvnia exchange rate. According to first Deputy Minister Oksana Markova, the rate is only one factor in the calculation. And these forecasts do not mean that it will be like that.