A disappointing forecast of inflation and loans abroad. He expects business in 2018

By 2018 inflation will be 10.4%.

Such forecasts was expressed by the respondents Bank top managers of Ukrainian enterprises. 78% of respondents explained their expectations primarily by the situation on the currency market.

The previous forecast was slightly more optimistic – 10%.

At the same time, managers of enterprises expect faster output growth of goods and services in Ukraine. The most optimistic representatives of the companies of the processing industry, trade, companies of the segment of electricity and water, as well as agriculture and processing industry.

Positive changes respondents noted their own businesses. As in the five previous surveys, the business appreciates the financial and economic standing of their enterprises. “Satisfactory” or “good” their financial and economic condition considers 88% of respondents. In the next 12 months 76% of respondents expect improvement of financial and economic state of their companies.

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But for the first time since the beginning of the survey of enterprises noted their inability to satisfy an unexpected demand increase due to own production capacities. In particular, the notable lack of free capacities of the enterprises of agriculture and trade.

The need of enterprises in borrowed funds remains significant, the greatest – of the extractive industry (balance of responses – 69%). Respondents who plan to take Bank loans, prefer local currency. A deterrent to attracting new loans remain high rates. Simultaneously, the second consecutive quarter the proportion of respondents who plan to raise funds abroad (by 8.3% compared with 7.4% in the previous survey).

The survey was conducted from 3 November to 5 December 2017. It was attended by 670 companies from 22 regions (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Donetsk and Lugansk regions) that represent the economy by main types of activities, forms of ownership, size by number of employees. The results of the polls is a reflection of just the views of respondents-managers of enterprises of Ukraine, and not the assessment of the NBU.

Ukrainian business also predicted how devalued the hryvnia and the dollar will rise.


  • inflation
  • business
  • National Bank

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