In search of the lost. How Poroshenko is going to win the election
To the President of Petro Poroshenko joke that to win the presidential election in 2019, he decided, as soon as crossed the threshold of his office on the fourth floor of the presidential Administration.
“He lives by the rule of business: take all but give nothing” – briefly describes the ambition Poroshenko, one of his associates.
The first election meeting on Bankova street took place in the summer of 2016. They were formal in nature: they discussed fresh sociology, sounded the names of other possible candidates. Now before Poroshenko are very specific task – to form a campaign headquarters and work for the victory. The latter is now under a big question, because fresh sociology heralds the preference of Yulia Tymoshenko. According to the results of the December poll Fund “Democratic initiatives” and sociological service of the Razumkov Center, a 12.1% of voters are ready to vote for Tymoshenko, while for Poroshenko to 10.2 percent.
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Because of this, the spin doctors Bankova considering my options on how to reduce the ratings of competitors Poroshenko and convenient pick up of candidates for the second round of elections.
One more trouble the team Poroshenko – the reluctance of the Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman to be a VIP agitator President. A man who could convey to voters across the country that real, positive change in the state merit of the first person.
Thanks to what Poroshenko is going to stay in the presidential chair – in the text Dnia.
In the same boat
The chief of staff is one of the key figures of the presidential campaign. It responsible for scan of local staff, control tasks, allocates budget, attracts people.
Although final decisions on the configuration of a campaign headquarters yet, but potential participants are waiting for such fees from week to week. The most likely candidate for leadership of Secretary of the NSDC Oleksandr Turchynov.
Over the past two years, Turchynov found common language with the President. Together they made decisions about the blockade of the occupied Donbass, the ban on Russian social networks were the initiators of the law on the reintegration of Donbass.
The possible appointment of Turchynov has a logical explanation. First, he has considerable experience of conducting pre-election campaigns and significant political authority. Second, the presence of the Secretary of the national security Council at the headquarters of Poroshenko will prevent unexpected attacks from the “popular front”, which openly dissatisfied with the President.
The Turchynov information about the staff still refuse to comment on.
To give official comments and to reveal the nuances of the presidential campaign one of his close associates also do not want Poroshenko sees it as a game on the side of the competitors. One of the oldest members of the President’s team expects that the work in the headquarters will connect people’s Deputy from the faction of the BPP Igor Gryniv (responsible for strategy and sociology), Minister of information policy Yurii Stets (responsible for media direction and strategy), Igor Rainin (has an effect on the heads of the ODE), Serhiy Berezenko (responsible for the “fields” through the cells of the party PPB).
Also headquarters can attract people’s Deputy from the faction of the NF Victoria syumar. It is close to Turchinov and in 2015 has already worked with the party BPP in local elections under the slogan “Save the country”. Then she was responsible for the strategy of the campaign and its media component.
At issue is the work at the headquarters of the first Deputy head of the presidential administration Vitaliy Kovalchuk. On Bankova are convinced that Poroshenko doesn’t trust him and this is not in the least contributed to Berezenko and Raininy that competed with Kovalchuk for influence in the regions.
In AP Kovalchuk was involved in “technical” projects. For example, in charge of “people’s control”, which took away votes from the party “Samopomich” in Western Ukraine and the party “Our land”, which was supposed to anizati the rating of the Opposition bloc in the East.
“If Kovalchuk won’t be in HQ, this is a big problem. It affects the part of governors, is able to “dilute” competition and if it is rejected, then he just begins to work against us” – outraged one of the representatives of the AP.
Another significant problem is Poroshenko and the team could be the absence of a strong VIP agitator, a freelance member of staff. The incumbent President of such an agitator would have to be the Prime Minister. However, Volodymyr Groysman refuses to take on this role.
“VIP-the propagandist must be the Prime Minister. It should arrive in the village to access schools-bridges and ask you to vote for Poroshenko. Groisman refused, playing some strange game,” says one of the sources in the entourage of the President.
The ambition of the Prime Minister has a logical explanation – for the last year it has significantly strengthened its position, directly in contact with all Ukrainian oligarchs, often independently collects votes under any voting in the Parliament. Meanwhile, complaining about Poroshenko, that the latter ascribes all the merits of the government.
“Poroshenko has made only bezveza engaged in the exchange of prisoners. Groysman is the decentralization, pension reform and minimum salary – that is the basis for the reform,” says one close to the Ukrainian officials.
UNIAN
From people to people
In the spring of 2017, the theme of the presidential election repeatedly raised at meetings of the “strategic nines” – an informal body to the President. There’s the ex-Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, together with the Minister of internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, the President proposed to reform the Constitution.
The essence of the reform is to transfer a significant part of the President’s powers in favor of Parliament. In fact, Yatsenyuk offered to make the Ukrainian President “Queen of England”. The former Prime Minister argued that sharing power with Parliament, Poroshenko will be able to be re-elected for a second term. Details about this concept can be read here→
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Another idea was Yuri Lutsenko – he proposed to create a new party with young faces. According to his theory, society needs to offer a national plan of action and set up under a political Union.
But Boris Lozhkin said that it is worth having a “plan B”, that is, to prepare a successor. So the successor could be either Volodymyr Groysman, or Yuriy Lutsenko. Both have serious political ambitions.
But none offer Poroshenko did not agree. According to TSN.uanow on the table of the President is based on three strategies, i.e. clear advice on how to win presidential elections – attribution of Igor Gryniv, Victoria syumar and Yuri Stec. None of them he is not respected in full and plays his own game.
“Poroshenko himself a strategist, he would leave on the cutting feeds, social handouts, will speak about reform, a strong army and bezveze,” predicts one of the representatives of the “strategic nine.”
In the short term Poroshenko is going to engage in a dialogue with voters. That is to travel to Ukraine, to meet with activists, where he will tell about his own reforms and achievements.
“We have the decline of trust, but that trust is still possible to return. This is done through communication. People need to hear the power and understand what we do, responsible for what the President and the government”, – said the interlocutor of the President’s entourage.
The website of the President of Ukraine
To wash away reality
The most important task of the strategists Bank will be to work with competitors to Poroshenko was able to reach the second round and not to lose.
According to the latest studies in presidential sympathies Poroshenko ahead of Tymoshenko. Sociological survey of Kiev international Institute of sociology shows that in December of 2017 voted for Tymoshenko would be 7.9% of voters, Poroshenko is 6.5%. Followed by Anatoly Gritsenko – 4.9%, and Yuriy Boyko – 3,6%, Oleg Lyashko – 3,5%, Andriy Sadovy is 3.2%.
Several other figures in the December survey of Fund “Democratic initiatives” and sociological service of the Razumkov Center. Of those who plan to go to the polls, the leader of “Batkivshchyna” support 12.1 percent, the incumbent President is 10.2%, ranking the third in – Anatoly Gritsenko from 7.8%.
“About Peter already told you, all negativity is known and it is constantly criticized. But for the rest of the candidates stories a little, so we start to pull out all the mountain. Just this still has not worked,” according to team President, while avoiding any details.
However, this is not true: “Hello” to their competitors Poroshenko reports and makes it public. In the video before the new year address of the President was shown the picture 2008 – Yulia Tymoshenko, accompanied by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
The popularity of Anatoliy Grytsenko can be reduced, if the former defence Minister will remember the case of embezzlement in the army in the days when he headed the Agency. On the opportunity Lutsenko hinted during his speech in the Verkhovna Rada Committee on national security last Wednesday.
“With regard to embezzlement in the army. Such production is, but most of them had already expired Statute of limitations. I just need actions from 2008. But there are such industries, some of them are already on the way out. I think that in the near future I will get another political charges,” – said the Prosecutor General.
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Vakarchuk made a political statement calling 10 steps to reform Ukraine
Black cat for all presidential candidates remains Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. If he agrees to go to the polls, a clear plan of action, in addition to the thesis “he’s a musician and knows nothing about real politics”, no one yet.
In addition to the correction of sympathy for the competitors in the AP looking for the best technical candidate for the second round. Such call Yuri Boiko and Vadim Rabinovich and Oleg Lyashko. However, in case of fall of a rating of Poroshenko, almost all of them have chances to become for the government an unpleasant surprise and possibly even to advance to the second round without the incumbent.
The correspondent of TSN.ia Roman Kravets.
Videoleuchte of the “popular front” declared that will go to the polls-2019
TSN. 19:30
11 November 2017, 20:14
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