A disappointing start to 2018: hryvnia hits record lows, NBU keeps inflation radical solutions
From December 2017 the hryvnia fell and reached its historical record in 2015, when the official exchange rate of the NBU the US dollar has reached 30 UAH.
In January, the hryvnia depreciated by almost 29 UAH per dollar. At the same time popular in the world the big Mac Index has informed: in fact, the dollar in Ukraine has to cost 9 hryvnia, says the story TSN.Week.
People all over the world to buy almost the same quantity of goods. Conditional Michael from Poltava eats not much more than his namesake Michael from Ohio. They buy the same shoes and go to the movies once a month. That’s just Michael it spends 5 thousand hryvnia, and Michael a thousand dollars. Men live as if equally and spend differently. To understand where the best publishers of the Economist 32 years ago come up with a universal thermometer – the big Mac Index.
Why the big Mac? First, it is the consumer basket in miniature – bread, meat, vegetables, cheese. Secondly, all these components are produced where sold. And therefore easy to find out how much really is the life around the world. James read Michael buys it for a dollar and a half, Michael in the US pays five. Their friends in Switzerland – almost seven. Big Mac is the best way to show the discrepancy in the value of currencies. If the world would be perfect, but now the rate would be 8.9 hryvnias.
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Groysman said the reasons for the fall of the hryvnia
The Ukrainian national currency has become the most underrated in the world the big Mac index. But on the other hand, such burgernomics shows in Ukraine is inexpensive compared to the world products. And if Michael from Ohio suddenly sent to Ukraine, the accountant with his work will easily determine how much to give him per diem. For the same money in America, he will eat 3 burgers, and in Ukraine 12.
Not to say that the Ukrainian currency is undervalued. Most importantly for the Ukrainian currency stability. The National Bank and close no need the resources to redeem as much of the hryvnia to the dollar was worth nine. This is not necessary, the rate should reflect the real situation.
Most often, the fever rate of hryvnia in January-February when we buy more abroad than we sell. Cheap hryvnia – the joy of the public sector, because the higher the rate, the more money the national currency. So it’s easier to pay pensions and salaries, which is what happened at the end of 2017. Some of these funds came to the foreign exchange market, contributing to a substantial increase in demand for foreign currency. This puts pressure not only on the course, but on inflation.
Inflation has once again trying to rein in the national Bank, which first predicts the growth of prices at the same level – 8%, and then says 13.5 percent. This year also expect 6% inflation, but already recognized – the forecast is unattainable. As a result The national Bank dramatically raised interest rates.
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In the national Bank said the impact on the hryvnia
Such solutions are extremely affected the business because the interest for expensive loans is in fact paying citizens, when to buy food, clothes, shoes, fuel. Experts fear that the already sluggish business lending can do to stop. At the Institute of logic is this: high discount rate is still high interest on deposits. So, instead of spending money on the markets, people will carry them to the Bank. This should stabilize the exchange rate.
Judging from what we see today on the scoreboard exchangers – winter minimum has already passed. The value of the dollar is gradually reduced. And if you hold savings in foreign currency hold the money until spring.
Irina Prokofieva
Videots.Week explored the reasons for the rise of the dollar in 2018
In Ukraine after reports from Davos – bit released the hryvnia, and the next day after the meeting of Petro Poroshenko and Christine Lagarde rate against the dollar strengthened a little bit. Since December, the hryvnia fell and almost reached its historical record – 30 hryvnia per dollar. Popular in the world the big Mac index reported that in fact, the dollar in Ukraine has to cost 9 hryvnia.
TSN. Week
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