Three scenarios of development of Ukraine’s economy. Forecasts Of The Cabinet
Three scenarios of development of Ukraine’s economy. Forecasts Of The Cabinet
© National Bank of Ukraine
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Next year GDP should grow by at least 1.1% in the pessimistic scenario.
The Cabinet has prepared three scenarios for the development of the economy in the next three years – usual, optimistic and pessimistic. All three rates will rise, though at different rates.
The Ministry of economic development and trade traditionally, calculates three scenarios of development. Macroeconomic guidelines needed for the calculation of the draft state budget for next year. About it writes “Economic truth”.
Three scenarios regarding the growth of Ukraine’s GDP
The script
2019
2020
2021
Normal
3%
3,8%
4,1%
Optimistic
4,1
5%
5,4%
Pessimistic
1,1%
1.6% of
2,1%
The first scenario envisages the implementation of reforms and preservation of favorable conditions on global markets. The economy’s response to reform will be moderate. Projected GDP growth: 2019 – 3%, in 2020 is 3.8%, 2021 and 4.1%. This scenario coincides with the forecasts of the IMF and on the basis of this forecast, the Ministry proposes to calculate the budget-2019.
The second scenario envisages the implementation of complex reforms, land and tax regarding the taxation of profits of enterprises (the tax on the capital). The external environment will be favorable. Projected GDP growth: 2019 – with 4.1%, 2020 – 5%, 2021 at 5.4%.
See also:
Inflation in Ukraine slowed down considerably.
The third scenario is a pessimistic one. He suggests that negative trends in the external environment weaken the possibility of implementation of reforms, primarily in the financial sector. The economic slowdown and loss of confidence of foreign investors exacerbate the problem of calculating the Ukraine on its debt obligations. Projected GDP growth: 2019 – 1.1 percent in 2020 and 1.6%, 2021 and 2.1%.
Meanwhile, the national Bank revised its inflation forecast and updated figures for 2018 to 2020 is scheduled to release on 12 July. A new detailed macroeconomic forecast – July 19.
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