That could sink the friendship of Putin and trump – Reuters

Donald trump continues to defend Vladimir Putin. Traditionally, US presidents, he gave a television interview before gathering a multimillion audience of the final of the championship of American football; the person on the conservative channel Fox was the lead bill Oreily. His response to the Russian President – “killer” – trump rejected.

This writes Josh Cohen in the article “That could sink the friendship of Putin and the tramp” for Reuters.

“We have a lot of killers. Do you think our country is so innocent?”, retorted the President of the United States.

The improvement of relations between Moscow and Washington, no doubt, would be in the interests of national security of the United States …
Josh Cohen, Reuters

The improvement of relations between Moscow and Washington, no doubt, would be in the interests of U.S. national security, mainly by reducing the risk of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. However, despite the optimistic signals from the camps of Putin and trump, their relationship can deteriorate very quickly – and possibly sink to an even lower level.

Among global problems, fraught with confrontation between the US and Russia – Iran. Trump sends conflicting signals on nuclear deal with Tehran. In election time, he periodically threatened to break the agreement, but as the President might even want to clip it.

Putin, the first option is not satisfied. Russia played a key role in negotiations with Iran bear fruit, in particular, proposing mutually acceptable West solutions in the field of uranium enrichment for domestic needs and limitations of his weapons capability.

Moscow continues to play an important role in making the nuclear deal
Josh Cohen, Reuters

Moscow continues to play an important role in making the nuclear deal. At the end of 2015, Russia has accepted £ 25,000 Iranian enriched uranium and later with the blessing of the Obama administration – has put Tehran 116 metric tons of raw uranium in exchange for 44 tons of spent reactor coolant.

Putin may well perceive the failure of trump to complete the deal as a provocation and precursor to an American attack on nuclear facilities in Iran. Putin may even elect a response of the permission to delivery to Iran advanced Russian weapons to repel the American threat, which will unwind the spiral of the crisis in relations between Moscow and Washington.

Trump and Putin can move into a new arms race
Josh Cohen, Reuters

Trump and Putin can move into a new arms race. Memorial furore which was made the tweet trump “the U.S. should strengthen and expand its nuclear capabilities” and his remark on TV channel MSNBC – “let it be arms race”, following the statement by Putin that Russia needs to increase the capacity of strategic nuclear forces.

It is easy to foresee how it could unfold a new arms race between Moscow and Washington. US deploy anti-missile shield in Europe, which by 2018 will cover the whole continent, and attribute it to the need of protection from Iran. But Russia is sure that the goal is her own nuclear Arsenal. In response, Putin may deem justified the extension of the Russian offensive missile force, if it decides that it is necessary to maintain a balance of nuclear deterrence. In turn, this can result in a new round of strengthening the nuclear Arsenal of America.

Russian policy in Afghanistan, too, could push Putin and trump. Although Russia is afraid of Islamic extremism, at the same time it shares intelligence with the Taliban – the very same jihadists, which American soldiers are fighting for 15 years. Although Moscow insists that the exchange is limited to the scope of the joint fight against Islamic state, us commanders openly say that Moscow legitimitize the Taliban regime for the sake of undermining NATO. The continuing connection of the Taliban with “al-Qaeda”, coupled with the declared trump the desire to focus on the fight against Islamic extremism, can force Washington to demand that Moscow change its policy in Afghanistan. It is unknown whether it will agree Putin.

Of course, there are other areas in which both leaders can find common ground. It is Ukraine and Syria
Josh Cohen, Reuters

Of course, there are other areas in which both leaders can find common ground. It is Ukraine and Syria. If the relationship between Putin and trump will stay warm, the American President could consider cutting aid to the rebel movement in Syria and together with Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to concentrate on the repression of the “Islamic state”.

Although this is, no doubt, would have pleased Moscow, the issue is that Putin would offer to Trump in exchange? Russia came to Syria under the pretext of fighting ISIL, but noted mainly in the Syrian armed opposition to Assad. Putin could promise to join US in the fight against “Islamic state”, but how would react the trump, if his obligation Putin ignored?

Moreover, an Alliance with Russia and Assad in Syria, in fact, trump would enter into an Alliance with Iran – the very country for which he fought.

Similar concerns arise in the case of Ukraine. Moscow would be happy if Washington put an end to the sanctions and recognized the Russian annexation of Crimea. But again, that Putin would offer in return? Theoretically, Moscow could promise to stop its “hybrid war” in Eastern Ukraine. However Putin has shown no inclination to agree with the Pro-Western course of Kiev, which would very likely be reviewed and the transaction.

Moreover, Moscow wants not only for lifting the us sanctions, but it also requires Washington to pay compensation for the damage caused by this measure.

How will personal relationships trump Putin, remains to be seen
Josh Cohen, Reuters

How will personal relationships trump Putin, remains to be seen. The American President said he respected Russia as a strong leader, but said the broadcaster, Oral that “this does not mean that we’ll get along”. Regardless of how the rest of the presidents, there are internal political constraints, is able to put an end to trump’s efforts to normalize relations with Russia. The minority leader in the Senate, Charles Schumer, for example, plans to make, prepared jointly by Democrats and Republicans a bill requiring the President to seek congressional approval before lifting of the sanctions against Russia.

In addition, submitted to Congress the draft law on intelligence has a clause providing for the creation of a new organization to counter the political interference from Russia, and it also could possibly motivate her actions in retaliation.

Even the annulment of the adopted in 2012 “Magnitsky act”, punished a number of Russians for human rights violations, it is impossible without the consent of Congress, which in the current environment it is difficult to count.

Moreover, trump could face opposition to his policy towards Russia within the administration, and at the level of wider relevance to national security. In his first speech at the UN security Council, the new U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley denounced the “aggressive actions” of Russia in Ukraine and stated that sanctions for the annexation of Crimea will remain in force.

At the hearings in the Congress proposed by the trump for the post of foreign Minister Rex Tillerson has called “hazard,” and the nominee on a post of the Director of the CIA Mike Pompeo criticized Russia for its “threat to Europe” and “doing nothing” in the suppression of ISIL. In turn, the candidate of the Pentagon General James Mattis said to consider his candidacy to the Congress that Russia sees first in the list of “major threats”. Although trump could theoretically circumvent dissent, just ordered the military to cooperate with Russia in Syria, the us defense Ministry already has experience of obstruction such orders, as it did with similar efforts of Secretary of state John Kerry.

Trump can succeed in adjusting the course of us-Russian relations. However, the shape change of policy would not necessarily mean a change of its content.

See also:

Trump did not put an equal sign between the US and Russia – Pens

Recall that in the Kremlin reacted to the upcoming meeting trump and Poroshenko. “We have no right to comment on the priorities of the foreign policy of other countries, including the United States of America. This is the first. And if such meeting in any case in some way contribute to the settlement here of this internal Ukrainian conflict, we will be only glad,” said Sands, answering the question about how the Kremlin will respond if trump first will meet with Poroshenko and not Putin.